The Scariest Unemployment Graph I've Seen Yet

Are you standing on the Rock of Salvation?

Source: http://www.theatlantic.com

The median duration of unemployment is higher today than any time in the last 50 years. That's an understatement. It is more than twice as high today than any time in the last 50 years.

OK, you're saying, but what does this mean? Does it mean we must increase the duration of unemployment benefits to protect this new class of unemployed, or does it mean we need to stop subsidizing joblessness? Does it mean we need to expand federal retraining programs, or does it mean federal retraining programs aren't working? Does it mean we need more stimulus, more state aid, more infrastructure projects, more public works ... or does it mean it's time to stop everything, stand back and let business be business?

You're going to find smart people make a case for all six of the above public policy directions. (I tend to side with the first of each coupling.) It's hard to know for sure how to design public policy for historically unique crises precisely because they are historical orphans, without precedent to show us the right way from the wrong.

One of my first reactions to this graph was: Surely this is why we don't have to worry about inflation for a very, very long time. However, here's evidence that despite the historically inverse relationship between inflation and joblessness, "the long-term unemployed put less downward pressure on inflation." Ultimately, this is a graph that should humble policy makers more than it should scare them into confidently arguing they know exactly how to fix it.


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Isaiah 55:6Make search for the Lord while he is there, make prayer to him while he is near:Isaiah 55:7Let the sinner give up his way, and the evil-doer his purpose: and let him come back to the Lord, and he will have mercy on him, and to our God, for there is full forgiveness with him.
John 3:16For God had such love for the world that he gave his only Son so that whoever has faith in him may not come to destruction but have eternal life

God bless you!